Why BN will forever remain in power, unless it loses control of East Malaysia
I would even dare bet that Pakatan Rakyat has a good chance of winning 95 seats against Barisan Nasional’s 71. This means Barisan Nasional needs to win at least 50 seats from Sabah and Sarawak to form the federal government with a minimum of 121 seats. That would give Barisan Nasional a nine-seat margin over the 112 required to form the federal government.
Raja Petra Kamarudin
Umno Youth Must Ensure Sabah Remain BN’s “Fixed Deposit” – Salleh
The state Umno Youth have a major responsibility to play in ensuring the trust of the people, especially the youth, and also to ensure that the party remained relevant.
The former Chief Minister said in any organisation, only one leader can lead and administer and not two or more, so that the organisation can be a strong team.
“In an organisation there must be a leader with caliber so as to lead Umno’s struggles and strengthen the party. This is where Umno Youth can play a major role,” he told reporters after closing an Umno Youth workshop in Kinarut, near here Monday.
“Sabah youths must be inspired, innovative, knowledgeable and most importantly, brave to face the challenges ahead. If we remained with the old mindset, there won’t be any room to accept changes and that will be meaningless to the party’s struggle.”
Salleh who is also Kota Belud Umno division chief said Umno Youth must remain the pillars of the party, especially when facing uncertainty and challenges in politics and economy.
When Sabah and Sarawak teamed up with Malaya and Singapore to form Malaysia (yes, that’s right, Sabah and Sarawak did not JOIN Malaysia) it was with certain terms and conditions attached. Some may have heard of the 20-point agreement but not many may have actually read it. I suppose the same goes for the Merdeka agreement prior to independence in August 1957 or the ‘Social Contract’ that binds the very delicate fabric of Malaysian society.
This is probably the trouble with most Malaysians. They know certain words or phrases. They throw these words and phrases around. But not many know the concept behind these words or phrases. We have had the Look East Policy, the Buy British Last policy, Malaysia Incorporated, 1Malaysia, the New Economic Policy, Ketuanan Melayu, the ‘Social Contract’, and whatnot. We have all heard of them. But what do they all mean?
The 20-Point Agreement is another that many Malaysians can liberally quote but very few have actually read what it says. Even the police and Peninsular Malaysia politicians do not understand it. For example, if a Sabah politician were to say that the state should pull out of Malaysia and become the Independent Republic of Sabah, the federal leaders and the police would scream treason and rush over to Kota Kinabalu to arrest that Sabah politician under the Internal Security Act.
Is it treason? Or is it when Sabah and Sarawak teamed up with Malaya to form Malaysia it had been agreed that these two East Malaysian states could later leave the Federation of Malaysia if they find it untenable, but it must be done through a certain manner — like holding a Referendum first and successfully getting the minimum number of votes required?
No, it is not treason. It is provided for in the agreement when Sabah and Sarawak first sat down to discuss the possibility of forming a new country called Malaysia. The only thing is it must be done according to the method agreed upon. The Chief Minister can’t wake up one morning and just announce that Sabah is no longer part of Malaysia and is now an independent republic.
But will Umno allow Sabah and Sarawak to leave Malaysia even if it is legally allowed? Would Dr Jeffrey Kitingan, again, be detained under the Internal Security Act if, again, he makes a statement saying that Sabah should leave Malaysia? The answer is ‘no’ to the first and ‘yes’ to the second. Umno will never allow Sabah and Sarawak to leave Malaysia and they will certainly detain without trial anyone who suggests so.
Why are Sabah and Sarawak so important to Malaysia, other than the fact they have plenty of oil and other natural resources which we can plunder? Well, Sabah and Sarawak must at all times hold 25% of the total number of parliament seats. Currently, out of 222 parliament seats, East Malaysia has 56 — that is 31 from Sarawak and 25 from Sabah.
For all intents and purposes, Sabah and Sarawak hold the key to federal power and are the ‘Kingmakers’. Ever wonder why Barisan Nasional politicians regard Sabah and Sarawak as the ruling coalition’s ‘fixed deposit’? They are not ashamed of this and make no apologies for it. In fact, they brazenly say so openly.
In the last general election on 8 March 2008, the opposition — meaning DAP here — won just one parliament seat in Sabah and another in Sarawak. Barisan Nasional retained 54 seats in both states.
Nationwide, Barisan Nasional won 140 seats in total while the opposition won 82. But if we minus the 54 seats from East Malaysia, Barisan Nasional won only 86 seats against the opposition’s 80 (also if we minus the two DAP seats in Sabah and Sarawak). Now, however, since the Kuala Terengganu by-election, it is 85 Barisan Nasional versus 81 Pakatan Rakyat.
Can you see how crucial Sabah and Sarawak are to Barisan Nasional? In the next general election Barisan Nasional may win less seats than Pakatan Rakyat in Peninsular Malaysia. I would even dare bet that Pakatan Rakyat has a good chance of winning 95 seats against Barisan Nasional’s 71. This means Barisan Nasional needs to win at least 50 seats from Sabah and Sarawak to form the federal government with a minimum of 121 seats. That would give Barisan Nasional a nine-seat margin over the 112 required to form the federal government.
Nine seats is not a very large margin. But if Pakatan Rakyat increases its seats in Peninsular Malaysia from 81 to 95, then Barisan Nasional will need Sabah and Sarawak even more than before. However, Barisan Nasional will need to win at least 50 of the 56 seats in East Malaysia. If it wins only 40 seats instead of 50, then Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat would be locked in an ‘hung parliament’ with 111 seats each.
Not very good for political stability is it?